Predicting Undernutrition at Age 2 Years with Early Attained Weight and Length Compared with Weight and Length Velocity

OBJECTIVE To estimate the abilities of weight and length velocities vs attained growth measures to predict stunting, wasting, and underweight at age 2 years. STUDY DESIGN We analyzed data from a community-based cohort study (The Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development study [MAL-ED] study) in Bhaktapur, Nepal. A total of 240 randomly selected children were enrolled at birth and followed up monthly up to age 24 months. Linear and logistic regression models were used to predict malnutrition at 2 years of age with growth velocity z scores at 0-3, 0-6, 3-6, 6-9, 6-12, and 9-12 months (using the World Health Organization Growth Standards) or attained growth at 0, 3, 6, and 12 months as predictors. RESULTS At age 2 years, 4% of the children were wasted, 13% underweight, and 21% stunted. Children who were malnourished at age 2 years had lower mean growth z scores already at birth and throughout the study period. Anthropometric indicators in infancy were significant predictors for growth at the age of 2 years during most periods and at most ages in infancy. Weight-for-age z score, length-for-age z score, and weight-for-length z score at age 12 months had excellent areas under the curve (91-95) to predict the value of the same indicator at age 24 months. Maximum area under the curve values for weight and length velocity were somewhat lower (70-84). CONCLUSIONS Growth measured at one time point in infancy was better correlated with undernutrition at age 2 years than growth velocity.